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Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

Saturday, March 28, 2020   /   by Teresa Dipeso

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

Bill McBride, the founder of Calculated Risk, believes we are already in a recession:

“With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2. The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”

How deep will it go?

No one knows for sure. It depends on how long it takes to beat this virus. Goldman Sachs anticipates we will see a difficult first half of the year, but the economy will recover in the second half (see below):

GS Forecast 2020.jpg


This aligns with the projection from Wells Fargo Investment Institute:

“Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”

Again, no one knows for sure how long the pandemic will last. The hope is that it will resolve sometime over the next several months. Most agree that when it does, the economy will regain its strength quickly.

 





Teresa M DiPeso & The DiPeso Group Jersey Shore Real Estate Experts
Teresa M. DiPeso
Long & Foster
Avalon/Stone Harbor/Cape May/Sea Isle/Wildwoods, NJ 08202
609-780-1434

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The data relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the Broker Reciprocity program of the South Jersey Shore Regional MLS. Real estate listings held by brokerage are marked with the Broker Reciprocity logo or the Broker Reciprocity thumbnail logo (a little black house) and detailed information about them includes the name of the listing brokers.
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